Cassava production and agricultural growth in Nigeria: Analysis of effects and forecast
Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Prince Abubakar Audu University, Anyigba, Nigeria.
Research Article
GSC Advanced Research and Reviews, 2024, 21(01), 037–046.
Article DOI: 10.30574/gscarr.2024.21.1.0356
Publication history:
Received on 20 August 2024; revised on 28 September 2024; accepted on 30 September 2024
Abstract:
This study analyzed the trend in agricultural growth and cassava productivity in Nigeria (1961 – 2020). Time series on variables of interest were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and FAOSTAT. The secondary data obtained were analysed Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The result of the short-run model indicated that the Vector Error Correction Term [VECT (-1)] was rightly signed (-1.74) indicating a high speed of adjustment. The results of the ARIMA forecast showed that in the next decade, the area cultivated for cassava will be 11295.04 (‘000 hectares), the output of cassava will be 73300.33 (‘000 tonnes), the yield of cassava will be 10.98 tonnes/ha while agricultural growth will be 80612.60 (‘000). The findings are compelling reasons for encouraging cassava production for sustainable food production in Nigeria as it is a versatile staple to address food security in Nigeria.
Keywords:
ARIMA; Agricultural growth; Cassava production; Forecast; Long-Run; Short-run; VECM
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